Conference season fires starting gun for long election campaign

It’s conference season again, when Westminster goes on the road and tries to focus public attention on set-piece speeches rather than off-the-cuff gaffes in fringe meetings.

By the time you read this, the Conservative Party conference will already be under way in Manchester.

This year’s gathering is unlikely to replicate the absolute chaos of 2022, when the party saw open cabinet splits, a U-turn on tax policy and questions about how long Liz Truss could survive.

But still, the party’s wounds are not fully healed and discipline is poor. The impending election will see some sections of the party push Rishi Sunak to announce dramatic, popular policies while others will have half an eye on the fallout from what they expect may be a heavy defeat.

The Prime Minister himself will hope his first conference as leader enables him to set out his own stall and a vision for what he wants Britain to look like, beyond the mere “managerial competence” that he has tried to project so far.

That is likely to involve a sharp break from parts of the 2019 manifesto, particularly the more interventionist bits that Boris Johnson favoured but are not part of Mr Sunak’s brand of conservatism.

Following his announcement on watering down net zero policies, we can also expect at least rhetorical emphasis on “long-term” decisions – indeed, this is the slogan for the conference – although there will probably be plenty of shorter-term policies given it is only a year until the likely date of the next election.

On the other hand, Labour will hope its trip to Liverpool can replicate the success of the 2022 gathering.

Last year, the party put on a disciplined display and largely avoided damaging headlines, setting a stark contrast with the Tory conference a week later.

This year will likely see a much bigger policy push as the party gets ready for a long election campaign, meaning the opportunities for grumbling – particularly from the party’s left – will be greater.

The party is expected to make housing a major focus of the conference, but will no doubt face questions on its green prosperity plan and other spending commitments that could again see divisions come to the fore.

The conferences provide a clear indication of where Westminster thinks the next year is going, with lobbyists flocking to Labour but increasingly giving the Conservatives a miss.

But the key thing for both parties will be whether they can display discipline. Few people in the wider public pay close attention to party conference speeches, especially now when many people appear to have made up their minds already.

But if the Conservatives again look divided and Labour manages to pull off another unified performance, it will only enhance the idea that the next election will bring a change of government.

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