What British readers need to know ahead of COP28

It’s November and the world is gearing up for the 28th Conference of Parties – the United Nations climate conference, or COP28, which will be held in Dubai. Journalists’ inboxes are filling up with pitches, event invites and meeting requests from NGOs, corporates, charities, officials, trade bodies – all trying to push their particular environmental agenda. Meanwhile, this year feels particularly critical because it comes at a time when the world really needs to really shift from commitments to committed action.

As the complexity of the challenge dawns on government and business leaders, the last year has seen a wave of wavering resolve to deliver. So here we take a look at the key issues that British readers need to know about ahead of what is shaping up to be a significant moment in international climate efforts.

Official themes
Earlier this year, COP28 President Sultan Al Jaber outlined this year’s thematic programme, which centers around “four Fs”: Fast-tracking the transition to a low-CO2 world, fixing climate finance, focusing on people, lives and livelihoods, and inclusivity.
These also coincide with the three official themes: Finance, Technology and Innovation, and Inclusion.
Dr Al Jaber has indicated that he wants to ensure rich countries stand by a longstanding commitment to provide billions a year to poor nations.
The move comes as previous efforts to do so have broken down with the failure to meet the target of giving £76.5 billion a year by 2020.
Mr Jaber said it is “absolutely imperative” that the means to fill this fund should be agreed at COP28.
The summit also looks to focus on mobilizing ecosystems of governments, corporates, multilaterals, academia, investors and startups to drive development and deployment of climate solutions that can help bring the world back to a 1.5C trajectory.
And finally, inclusion is going to be central to negotiations, with COP28 hoping to bring a diverse range of stakeholders into the mix – from all levels of governments, business and investors to youth, civil society, frontline communities and indigenous peoples.

What the British public think
Data from an exclusive Ipsos poll for PA Mediapoint suggests that the vast majority of British public have little confidence in COP28 and its outcomes.
The research saw more than 1,000 members of the British public surveyed on their opinions of the UN climate summit in the last week of October.
The results suggests that only a third will follow the news around COP28 closely (32%) this year compared to 61% who will not follow it closely.
Asked whether they believe commitments made at COP28 will result in action, just 1% said it is certain to, followed by 4% who said they believe it is very likely.
Overall just 17% of respondents gave a more optimistic answer to this question compared to 47% who believe action is unlikely.
The research also suggests little confidence that Britain would keep to commitments agreed at COP28, with just 5% saying they are very optimistic, 23% giving a positive answer and 38% giving a negative one.
The figures are similar when it comes to whether people are confident that action taken from COP28 commitments would have a real impact on climate change – with 28% feeling confident compared to 55% who do not.
Finally, just 19% of respondents said they believe previous COPs have resulted in positive global action, compared to 34% who do not.
A similar picture can be seen in terms of Britons believing that commitments made at previous COPs have been implemented, with 17% agreeing that they have, compared to 37% who disagree.

Britain needs to do more than just ‘show up’
Many believe Britain, which had been considered a leader in climate action, is going into COP28 with this reputation damaged.
It comes after Prime Minister Rishi Sunak pushed back several targets on net zero action and threw his support behind the development of the controversial Rosebank oil field in the North sea.
Mr Sunak’s attendance at COP28 will generate interest in itself after he did a U-turn on attending COP27 in Egypt last year and became the first Prime Minister in a decade to miss UN Climate Week in New York earlier this year.
Green Party MP Caroline Lucas said: “He will need to do more than just turn up in Dubai if he is to restore the UK’s abandoned climate leadership and help secure a positive outcome at the UN summit.
“Attendance needs to be matched with concrete action if we are to avert further climate catastrophe.” Chris Skidmore, a Conservative former energy minister who has become increasingly outspoken on net-zero, said: “The UK must show it’s a serious, trusted partner in these discussions by joining our international allies in calling for an end to the fossil fuel era and moving more quickly towards a clean energy world.”
Former Labour frontbencher Barry Gardiner said: “Perhaps attending Cop28 will educate him that the consequences of the climate crisis are already here, damaging the global economy and global security too.”
In a statement, Energy Security Secretary Claire Coutinho said: “No major economy has cut emissions faster than the UK.
“We’re proud that we’ve overdelivered on every target to cut our emissions to date.
“However, tackling climate change is a global challenge as the UK only accounts for 1% of worldwide emissions.
“I look forward to representing the UK at COP28, where we will be working to get more progress around the world on green finance, forests, and clean energy.
“In the UK we have more ambitious climate change targets than our peers and we will be using what we have learnt to help others on our shared path to net zero.”

The threat to 1.5C and net zero action

COP28 president Sultan Al Jaber has made it clear that the 1.5C is the “single north star” for the summit after some Governments tried to unpick their commitment to the Paris Agreement last year.
This message also carries weight for the UK, where Mr Sunak’s stance on Net Zero has sparked accusations that the Government is trying to politicise climate action as a way to scoop up votes.
Juan Manuel Santos, former President of Colombia and Nobel Peace-prize Laureate, is among those who have warned that this COP is when countries need to double down on the climate.
Speaking at WWF’s State of the Planet Address in London on October 26, he said: “This year’s Climate Change Conference in Dubai is of utmost importance because we cannot keep postponing decisions that are crucial to the survival of humanity.
He added: “It is quite worrisome, and disappointing, to witness how the UK, a country that has been an example and at the forefront of this battle for our existence, is backtracking in its commitments. And unfortunately, other important countries like France, Germany, and the United States are also rolling back on theirs.”
The environmentalist added that one great achievement for COP28 would be to link the Biodiversity Convention – a multilateral treaty to conserve nature – with the Climate Change Convention – a treaty to combat human destruction of climate systems.

Global Stocktake

Another reason this COP is particularly significant is the fact that Governments will need to set out progress on emissions reduction commitments (NDCs) that they made in Paris in 2015.
This “Global Stocktake” could mark a turning point in the escalating climate crisis as leaders will be forced to take a hard look at their efforts as well as the state of the planet.
It also aims to identify the gaps, and to work together to agree on solutions pathways to 2030 and beyond.
UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell has called it “an accountability exercise”.
“It’s an exercise that is intended to make sure every Party is holding up their end of the bargain, knows where they need to go next and how rapidly they need to move to fulfill the goals of the Paris Agreement,” he said.
Dr Rhian-Mari Thomas OBE, CEO of the Green Finance Institute, said: “COP28, and the Global Stocktake will highlight the need to accelerate efforts to redeploy capital to meet our Paris commitments.
“The UK has an opportunity to show global leadership on green finance at these critical negotiations, by demonstrating a sectoral rather than generic approach to financing the transition- developing the detailed financial plans to underpin the achievement of our nationally determined contribution to attract investment and create green growth.
“Building on the work being pioneered by the GFI, the UK can harness the creativity of our financial sector in partnership with policymakers to establish the financial instruments and institutions that are vital to mobilise both global and local capital towards green emerging economies.”

Fossil Fuels

The world is heading into COP28 divided over the future of fossil fuels in the transition.
A UN report published in September that will form the basis of the Global Stocktake contained a recommendation on phasing out fossil fuels, and thus placed it at the heart of the UN climate talks.
The report says: “Achieving net zero CO2 and greenhouse gas emissions requires systems transformations across all sectors and contexts, including scaling up renewable energy while phasing out all unabated fossil fuels, ending deforestation, reducing non-CO2 emissions and implementing both supply and demand side measures.”

It comes after years of oil producing nations preventing the UN from adopting such strong language on fossil fuels while COP27 in Egypt saw a failed attempt to get such language included in the summit’s outcome.
The UEA has so far avoided including language on phasing out fossil fuels but Dr Al Jaber has repeatedly talked of “phasing down”.
The COP28 president has argued that climate change can only be solved if oil and gas are part of the discussions.
While acknowledging that the world must slash emissions by 43% by 2030 to limit warming to 1.5C, he argues that fossil fuels will still be needed in the transition and justifies this as a reason behind his oil company’s big expansion plans in the next seven years.
Oil-producing nations like the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Russia and the US have taken a similar stance, arguing for the “phase down” of fossil fuel production rather than a “phase out”.
But the European Union is part of a loose coalition of about 80 nations that argue there can be no compromise on getting rid of fossil fuels.
Finally, Dr Al Jaber is also reportedly looking to formulate an agreement with the world’s biggest fossil fuel producers to reduce their emissions in line with 1.5C, which would be a significant moment in international climate diplomacy.
Gareth Redmond-King, head of International Programme at the Energy and Climate Intelligence, said: “Despite running the state oil company in one of the world’s top oil and gas exporting nations, it is notable that COP28 president Dr Al Jaber has repeatedly said phase-down of fossil fuels is inevitable.
“But the battle in Dubai will be on the clarity of language, dates for phase-down or phase-out, and use of the term ‘unabated’ which can imply heavy reliance on carbon capture and storage technology, as yet unavailable at scale.
“Whether and how far COP28 moves us beyond the Glasgow language on phase-down just of coal will be a key measure of success in the UAE in December.”
Ian Higham, research officer at the Grantham Institute at the London School of Economics, said: “The question of phaseouts has been a perennial sticking point at recent COPs because major emitters like the US and major oil producers like the UAE and Saudi Arabia also must agree.
“Yet the US has continued to approve new oil and gas projects at a swift pace, and the Emirati President of COP28 is head of a state-owned oil firm. These considerations do not provide much cause for optimism that a deal can be reached.
“Despite this, European Union members have finally agreed their collective negotiating position at COP28, which is to push for a deal on phasing out unabated fossil fuels.
“Given that the EU’s position aligns with an explicit call in the global stocktake report, this debate should be high on the agenda in Dubai.”

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