There is no evidence billions more people are eager to come to the UK (Jonathan Brady/PA)

The UK only housed 0.6% of the world’s refugees in 2021

By August Graham, PA
12:46 - March 22, 2023

Home Secretary Suella Braverman has told MPs there are “100 million people around the world who could qualify for protection under our current laws” and “they are coming here”.

She added in an opinion article that there are “likely billions more eager to come here if possible”.

The Home Secretary’s comments came as the Government announced new legislation to control migration into the UK.

Evaluation: No evidence

There are around 100 million displaced people around the world, but the majority of these are still in their own countries.

There is no evidence that 100 million people are coming to the UK or that billions more are eager to come to the UK.

The facts

What did the Home Secretary say?

On March 7 this year the Home Secretary spoke in Parliament. She said: “We have created a new small boats operational command, with more than 700 new staff; doubled National Crime Agency funding to tackle smuggling gangs; increased enforcement raids by 50%; signed a deal with Albania, which has already enabled the return of hundreds of illegal arrivals; and are procuring accommodation, including on military land, to end the farce of accommodating migrants in hotels.

“But let us be honest: it is still not enough. In the face of today’s global migration crisis, yesterday’s laws are simply not fit for purpose.

“So to anyone proposing de facto open borders through unlimited safe and legal routes as the alternative, let us be honest: there are 100 million people around the world who could qualify for protection under our current laws.

“Let us be clear: they are coming here.

“We have seen a 500% increase in small boat crossings in two years.

“This is the crucial point of this Bill. They will not stop coming here until the world knows that if you enter Britain illegally, you will be detained and swiftly removed—back to your country if it is safe, or to a safe third country, such as Rwanda.”

In an article in the Daily Mail the same day she wrote: “There are 100 million people displaced around the world, and likely billions more eager to come here if possible.”

What source did the Home Secretary use?

The 100 million figure that Ms Braverman cites appears to come from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR).

A report from the body found that approximately 100 million people were displaced as of last May. The data was not fully-formed, so detailed breakdowns do not exist.

More thorough data is available from the UNHCR for 2021. That year 89.3 million people had been displaced due to war, violence, persecution and human rights abuses.

Of those, 53.2 million (around 60%) were so-called “internally-displaced people” – that is to say people who have fled their homes, but stayed in their own country.

Of the rest, 27.1 million were classed as refugees – that is someone who has been forced to flee their country because of persecution, war or violence.

Are they “coming here”?

In 2021 the UNHCR data shows that there were 137,078 people in the UK classed as “refugees or people in refugee-like situations”. That is around 0.6% of the global total.

Most refugees stay in countries closer to home. Four in five of the world’s refugees are hosted by low and middle-income countries. Turkey hosts 3.8 million people.

The UK also hosts many fewer refugees than European countries of a similar size. Germany played host to around 1.3 million, France hosted around 500,000.

Spain (123,000) and Italy (145,000) hosted a comparable number of refugees to the UK. As did Rwanda (122,000).

Are “billions more eager to come here if possible”?

This is a difficult question to answer. Getting exact data on what people want to do is impossible.

However surveys have tried to shed some light on this. According to a Gallup poll released earlier this year, 16% of adults around the world – or around 900 million people – would like to leave their own country permanently if possible.

Of these, 4% said that their top choice would be the United Kingdom, the sixth most popular destination.

That is around 36 million people. That is a lot of people, but far from the “billions” mentioned.

The survey was based on asking 127,000 adults in 122 countries about their desires in 2021.

When challenged on her figures earlier this month on ITV’s Good Morning Britain, Ms Braverman said: “There are potentially 100 million people around the world who are currently displaced. That’s an estimate provided for by the UN … many of them are heading to the United Kingdom. We saw over 45,000 people come here on small boats alone last year.”

The Home Office has been asked for comment.

Links

Home Secretary speaks in Parliament on March 7 (archived)

Home Secretary’s Daily Mail article (archived)

UNHCR first press release (archived)

UNHCR information on internally displaced people (archived)

UNHCR information on refugees (archived)

UNHCR country-by-country data – spreadsheet (archived) – Figure for refugees in UK in table 1, line 185.

UNHCR second press release (archived)

Gallup poll (archived)

Home Secretary interviewed on Good Morning Britain (archived tweet and video)

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